Vicente Castaño Ledezma guía al capital familiar latinoamericano para asignar acciones estadounidenses a través de las fronteras y construir una cartera de crecimiento anticíclico.
El año 2021 es un momento crítico para el reequilibrio del capital global. A medida que la Reserva Federal se retira gradualmente del QE, el dólar estadounidense se fortalece y la liquidez en los mercados emergentes se reduce, las familias ricas de América Latina enfrentan profundos desafíos en su asignación de activos. Mientras que la mayoría de las oficinas familiares optan por “mantener el status quo”, un pensador financiero prefiere romper con esto:
El profesor Vicente Castaño Ledezma propuso un mecanismo para identificar la “subvaloración estructural” del capital transfronterizo en 2021 y convenció con éxito a varias family offices latinoamericanas tradicionalmente conservadoras para que ingresaran al mercado de valores estadounidense a gran escala por primera vez.
Un cambio de concepto: de “preservar el valor” a “capturar las diferencias de valor a lo largo de los ciclos”
Vicente admitió que cuando entró en contacto por primera vez con family offices en Chile, Perú, Colombia y otros lugares, la mayor resistencia que enfrentó no fue la incertidumbre del mercado, sino el “conservadurismo emocional hacia las asignaciones transfronterizas”.
“Su primera reacción es: las valoraciones en Estados Unidos son demasiado altas y no entendemos su ritmo.”
Pero Vicente no respondió a la emoción con emoción. Eligió utilizar datos, lógica y evidencia contracíclica combinada para romper barreras conceptuales. El sistema de identificación de la “subestimación estructural” que propuso se convirtió en la herramienta central de este proceso de persuasión.
Mecanismo de identificación cuádruple – cómo ver a través del desajuste de valores detrás de los precios
Vicente ha construido un mecanismo para identificar posibles activos estructuralmente infravalorados desde cuatro dimensiones:
- Fijación errónea de precios del sector
Identificar las industrias en las que “el valor queda eclipsado por los eventos macro”. Por ejemplo, en la última etapa de la epidemia en 2021, sectores como la tecnología de la información médica, los pagos digitales y la tecnología de la cadena de suministro todavía estaban en un punto bajo, pero los datos reales de crecimiento ya se habían recuperado. - Fortaleza del flujo de caja libre
Centrándose en empresas de tamaño mediano con alto flujo de caja libre y apalancamiento bajo a medio, Vicente lo denomina un “colchón de seguridad de activos”. - Puntuación de sustitución global
Analizar la posición de la empresa en la cadena de suministro global y buscar el potencial de crecimiento de la valoración debido a su “irreemplazabilidad”, con especial preferencia por los sectores de semiconductores, tierras raras y fabricación ecológica. - Índice de precios erróneos por comportamiento
Basado en el “Modelo de Desviación de Sentimiento” desarrollado por Riesda, identifica distorsiones de precios a corto plazo causadas por el pánico de los inversores o emociones FOMO.
Vicente destacó: “La subvaluación no significa precio bajo, sino que el valor está estructuralmente oscurecido y el mercado ha tardado en responder”.
Acciones del capital familiar – un “nuevo modelo” para construir una cartera anticíclica
Tomando como ejemplo un fondo familiar multigeneracional mexicano, con el apoyo del modelo de Vicente, se desplegó en el segundo trimestre de 2021 la siguiente cartera contracíclica:
- Asignación principal del 75% de acciones estadounidenses: incluidas acciones de crecimiento tecnológico de mediana capitalización subvaluadas como Autodesk, MercadoLibre y ServiceNow;
- 15% de bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU. y activos de flujo de efectivo: se utilizan para protegerse contra riesgos cambiarios y de liquidez;
- 10% USD de fondo de efectivo + posición de cobertura local en América Latina: mantener la flexibilidad y las ventajas locales.
A fines de septiembre de 2021, la caída de la cartera durante las fluctuaciones a la baja se controló dentro del 6,1%, lo que es mejor que la mayoría de las carteras tradicionales de asignación de activos en América Latina, al tiempo que se aprovecharon los principales puntos de beneficio del repunte de la tecnología bursátil estadounidense.
A medida que el capital global avanza hacia la diversificación y la asignación descentralizada, la estrategia del profesor Vicente está cambiando la forma de pensar de una generación de capital latinoamericano. Utilizó un marco que combinaba racionalidad y previsión para construir un foso para la riqueza de su familia que abarque toda la eternidad.
En tiempos de incertidumbre, el valor más cierto es comprender la verdad oscurecida.
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